Redefining Europe: Analyzing the Aftermath of Far-Right Influence and France's Snap Election
BRUSSELS (AP) — A seismic shift in European politics unfolded over four tumultuous days, as the far right upended the established order in France and Germany, the traditional powerhouses of the European Union. The repercussions are poised to ripple through the EU's decision-making process for the next five years.
French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap national elections came in the wake of a stunning blow dealt by Marine Le Pen's National Rally to his pro-European centrist coalition. Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats faced a similar fate as the far-right Alternative for Germany surged despite recent scandals.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's party, rooted in neo-fascism, secured over 28% of the national vote, positioning itself as a significant player in shaping future alliances within the EU assembly.
While green and pro-business liberal factions across Europe suffered significant setbacks, mainstream political formations managed to maintain their foothold, with the center-right European People’s Party retaining its status as the largest bloc in the 27-nation EU assembly.
The French electorate is set to return to the ballot boxes in just three weeks following Macron's dissolution of parliament. Le Pen's anti-immigration, nationalist platform is projected to capture approximately 31%-32% of the vote, dwarfing Macron's Renaissance party, which is forecasted to garner around 15%. The magnitude of Le Pen's triumph has caught many by surprise, raising speculation about a potential "cohabitation" scenario, wherein Macron may be compelled to collaborate with a far-right government, much to his discomfort.
In Germany, Scholz's Social Democrats suffered their worst electoral outcome since World War II, securing a mere 13.9% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany emerged as the second-largest party with around 15.9%, bouncing back from recent setbacks and scandals. Although falling short of earlier poll projections, the result represents a significant improvement from the party's 2019 performance.
Amidst the upheaval, Germany's opposition center-right Union bloc claimed 30% of the vote, signaling a potential shift in the country's political landscape.
The landscape of the European Parliament is set to undergo subtle yet significant shifts, as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) maintains its dominance, projected to secure 191 seats in the expanded 720-seat assembly. While the EPP saw a marginal increase in seats, the center-left Socialists and Democrats, the second-largest bloc, are poised to retain their standing with 135 seats.
Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate for the EPP, initially courted parties on the right during the campaign but pivoted towards socialist and pro-business liberal factions following the announcement of early results, advocating for a cohesive pro-European alliance.
However, the environmentalist Greens faced notable setbacks, anticipating a loss of approximately 20 seats compared to their 2019 tally, partly attributed to farmer protests against stringent climate regulations. Despite the EU's global leadership in climate action, Greens' performance, especially in countries like Germany where they hold significant sway, is projected to decline.
Liberal parties, including those led by Macron, are also bracing for losses, collectively surrendering around 20 seats in the assembly. As party officials convene to strategize potential alliances, it is evident that decision-making within the parliament will face delays, impacting legislation on critical issues such as climate change and agricultural subsidies.
The upcoming summit on June 17, attended by EU presidents and prime ministers, will serve as a forum to assess the election results and deliberate on the reappointment of von der Leyen to lead the European Commission, the EU's formidable executive branch. As discussions unfold, the political dynamics within the EU are poised for recalibration, signaling a nuanced era of governance and collaboration across party lines.